So Selfwealth is one more likely to be acquired. As some would have predicted, considering that they might be at 6% market share now from 2-3% a year ago, disrupting the mature (bank) brokers.
OpenMarkets had their M&A activity in the past year, with 50% being bought out by their tech partner. I'd say if one of OpenMarkets' competitors took over SelfWealth, it would put them at a big advantage (if the 3 year contract with OM would allow for that).
So who are potential suitors?
- Big international brokers - looking to enter Australia, while millennials are signing up en masse.
- OM's competitors - master brokers looking to add more volume, and make more margin, with a successful retail broker brand. Or OM, if they wanted to quickly grow retail market share, but I'm not so sure they'd want to pay share market multiples, when they're a private business.
- Big banks losing market share and customers to SelfWealth. Maybe they don't want to cut their own brokerage costs to <$10, which may devalue their bank brand, but they might still like to own SelfWealth to retain the client relationships in the separate brand.
Those are my random ideas. I'd like to see EL&C's ideas.
An acquisition would be alight - just accelerates the story by paying a premium, though removes the long term potential. Now we're waiting for SelfWealth to improve things like revenue sources, to take advantage of the market share. An acquiring company would likely be able to introduce new revenue sources more immediately.
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