Domum and myself exchanged philosophical analysis on individual concepts regarding AVL. ----- Such as --- do you look and see the glass half empty -- or half full? Do you really think the Congo will return to massive tribal conflict, political upheaval, massive discentives to mining so as to drive out all mining projects? (the glass half empty scenario)
Personally while regarding such risks as possibilities also regard expectations - or even fear - of such outcomes as unrealistic. So that is close to the dividing line between my approach and the approach of some others who (no doubt with well meaning intentions) dwell on the negatives.
Now my posts have been remarked upon as being extremely? optimistic regarding AVL.
Perhaps the consistency and direction of my posts have actually been realistic.
Have at earlier times pursued the line that comments - posts regarding sovereign risk and tribal conflict have been much over-done. During this period many posts were full of alarmist statements and warnings. Much to my satisfaction the issue has become more of a discussion as to why sovereign risk is so over-rated by much of the market. Tribal conflict - once a regular alarmist factor - has now been largely relegated to a historical context.
Have also pursued the line that management has been of a high caliber and their obtaining of funding for stage 1 and commencement of mining close to budget and close to time projections was of a commendable nature. The agreement here has been close to unanimous.
Have previously suggested a price of 16 cents to 18 cents for AVL by late August and a price of 23 to 25 cents by early 2004. Well perhaps my projections were pessimistic as the price of AVL is close to 23 cents already.
The tenor of my approach here is that I believe my analysis - often largely based on information provided by the likes of Flats and 'pony - have been reasonably close to outcomes. Reasonably realistic?
Now for the future?
My belief is that Bill Turner will obtain funding for stage 2 - within weeks - on reasonable terms. There have been a few posts that come near to suggesting the funds could almost be raised by AVL with present profits, sale of shares in --? and the excising of options early 2004. However BT will want to deliver on his plan to have Stage 2 operational by first quarter 2004. And what better way to arrange for a loan with reasonable conditions attached than to indicate the company really does not need the loan? (The tongue is in cheek)
So expect three stages. 1. Announcement of obtaining funds. (Did someone suggest this would happen in September?) Should be. 2. Competion of Stage 2. and Stage 2 production. 3. Announcement of surge in profits due to Stage 2 implementation. After the surge in profits AVL shares could well be over 50 cents. Close to $1 even?
One should not be too optimistic but there is the Kap--? development and the Vietnam exploration results yet to be factored in. Nor has the possibility of further exploration areas being successfully explored in the Congo been factored in.
The huge discount due to the so called "Soverign Risk" factor? This will largely "evaporate" as AVL embeds the previous mentioned stages.
So that is my defence to accusation of being too? optimistic.
Haven't needed to "eat my words" regarding AVL so far. Have a realistic expectation that I will not need to do so in the future.
Henny Penny's sky could fall down and upset my prognosis.
