These guys are getting desperate as time is running out.
Love it, cherry picks a comment which nobody is giving any credence to but furthers his own sentiment. Again, people love to chime in with an opinion, yet offer up zero analysis to support. Almost as if they think their contrary opinion is more valued than hard facts. There is a certain air of self-importance about that really. Moreover, they ignore any facts and analysis offered up, and just attempt to label it ramping. Declaring facts is not ramping. However, offering an opinion absent anything tangible is.
First of all "doesn't even take into account outgoings", hmmmmm are you sure? I see exploration, development, production, staff costs, administration and capital works there. I also see interest. What outgoings are you expecting to see which are unaccounted for?
Let's begin.
At no point have I ever claimed $40m will be the net profit amount paid out as dividends. Let's get that straight right from the start.
Do we accept $40m as a gross profit figure? If not, why not? You will need a damn good reason why. If you want to be taken seriously here you will need to offer something up. Not just fluff. Explained reasons. Details. I have provided a clear model as to how I arrive at that figure and not once have I been given any counterpoint which dissolves that model. We talking financials here, so have at it.
Once we arrive at the same figure, which we inevitably will, we can begin an exercise where that $40m is spent. This will be an enjoyable excercise, but I will give a leg up here and give some clues as to what needs to be factored:
1. My $40m estimate includes the cash cost of production, as well as royalties, and an estimate for sustaining costs.
2. There is a carried forward tax loss which by my estimate means no tax will be paid in FY21.
3. There is little need to include further capex for existing plant into next year unless an expansion is sought after. (+$7m)
4. Interest payments are assumed to be non-existent after the first quarter of FY21 with debentures to be paid down in October 2020. (+$1.8m)
5. Costs of finance not needed in FY21 (+$1.2m)
6. Exercise of options will occur in the likely event of a dividend
7. Cash on hand at April was $10.2m with May and June receipts to come, meaning net debt will be circa $4m as at the beginning of the financial year.
8. Hedgebook will be satisfied in August 2020, opening up opportunity for full exposure to spot price gold and or revised up hedge operations
9. Interest revenue will become a current asset
Any other glaring omissions? Or are we satisfied this is a good enough picture to move forward?
So what number to we get to for net profit?
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