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UBS has upgraded its forecasts for the gold price for 2021 and 2022 (reports MiningNews).
Next year, it sees gold averaging US$2100 an ounce, up from $1850/oz, and in 2022, averaging $2000/oz, up from $1750/oz.

"We are raising our gold forecasts, now expecting prices to run higher and stay elevated for a longer period than we previously expected," UBS analysts said.
Spot gold rose as high as $2063/oz on August 6, but last traded at $1928/oz.
UBS' new 2021 forecast is 35% ahead of consensus of $1555/oz.

The upgrade equates to increases in earnings forecasts of UBS' gold stock coverage by 20% (Regis Resources) to 42% (OceanaGold Corporation) for the 2021 financial year, and a 26% increase for copper miner OZ Minerals.

Earnings for FY22 for gold companies is expected to increase by 26-49%.
"Our gold coverage is investing in growth initiatives, but the strong gold price means they also have positive free cashflow yields," UBS said.

There were no changes to ratings as valuations are based on a $1900/oz spot price.
UBS' top gold picks are Newcrest Mining, Saracen Mineral Holdings, Regis and OceanaGold, in that order.

Analyst Daniel Morgan recently upgraded Newcrest to a buy rating for the first time in seven years after completing in-depth work on the Havieron and Red Chris projects.
"The inclusion of these projects challenges market perceptions that production is peaking in 2020-21," UBS said.

"Saracen has a five-year production growth CAGR of 4% to 2025e ahead of peers (0-5%) and now trading at a circa 20% discount to our NPV.