Mick the last few days have bene low volume, so for me they are...

Mick
the last few days have bene low volume, so for me they are irrelevant.

I did look at the last preso re 20-11 results for a number of reasons- first was to confirm the negligible impact on Enoch which ;last year produced 100k net barrles to Roc and ths years was goung to produce 73,000 barrles. last year it achived sales reveneu of 11 million and. This years sales revenue would have bene about 8 million , about 7 million posit prodict costs and about 3 million post tax so very small impact

However, the exciting part becomes becaise of the following few items cash flow pre Balai cluster spend should be very similarf to last years even with lower proeiction due to
- 43 million extra cash flow form no hedging losses
Higher oil price -so far ave about 15 for the year and about 20 on spot
lower Chinese taxes adding about 4 dollars per barrel ( most prod chinese )

so despite the small pull back which is to be expected, Roc continues to be a very undervalued oil company, and business generally.

on a sperate note I spoke to compnay last week trying to understand Balai. here is how it works. Roc spend their share of pre development budget. If decision not to proceed in 2013, ROc get all money back within months. If decision to proceed, then Roc continues to spend as part of development. When orod comneces he get back money plus a revenue fee. Thye are protected if costs blow out within a liit ( 10% odd) the are also protected if once production starts , the reserves dont prove to be what is expected. In summary, the major risk is massive cpst blow out where Roc is not reimbused for costs over margin built in. omce revenue commences it will be recognised in reveneu profot lines but ofcourse wont appear in reserves. So this is why once the details are released once projct finance is lockd in( weeks away) then analysis will be able to value Balai properly. by undertanding revenue, they will able to ascribe value per share