total daily shorts, page-144

Hi sabine,

On the bars you labelled, my interpretation is similar to yours.

Firstly, remember there is buying (potential strength) in the recent background.
It was not massive buying, but buying all the same.
So this market currently now has a modest positive influence in place.
(I have no idea if this is only short or long term support, probably a combination of both)

On Your chart below, I placed a few more lines, one marks the most obvious buying bar and its high. This bars high is effectively a (rough) level where price can be considered to be in a position where a positive influence may establish, and price may begin to trend higher (until sufficient supply comes in to 'spoil the party' - for the short term). I marked that bars high with the label LIS+.
I also market the potential lows of the recent range with LIS-, which is where price may establish an ongoing negative influence if price pushes below this level.

I also marked a small congestion zone (to the left) which may contain some supply (selling pressure) that could cause some moderate resistance (selling pressure), as I think this may help explain the recent trading action.

So anyway,
On Bar #1 price moved above the line that marks the beginning of potential resistance zone, and price eventually closed back (in the relative safety) below this line. The volume suggests that initially price encountered low supply and moved higher with relative ease, but the close back below the line means there was likely to be some supply present. As usual 'the response' will help the understanding more.

Bar #2 closed higher in response, albeit on reduced volume. So the underlying sentiment in this market was still positive, and helps to confirm that the supply is mostly coming from the left, and not so much from below (profit taking).

Bar #3 then attempts to push higher again, but eventually closes poorly, at the low of the bar, on an increase in volume. This suggests that supply (I expect mostly from the left) continues to be drawn out.
To be sure there is likely to be 'some' profit taking at the same time, and if this profit taking (supply from below) begins to overwhelm demand and push price lower. The lower price will likely trigger more supply and price will begin to pull back.
So at this stage, bar #3 can be considered a form of absorption bar, where the market is strong enough to absorb the supply that is being drawn out (as usual, the response to this bar will help to confirm how the balance between both sides is holding - both sides >> buyers/sellers - supply/demand)

So the response today (so far) sees price holding firm and the market continues to absorb any supply that is drawn out.
So the market continues to absorb supply from the left. However if some profit taking emerges and forces price lower, some form of pull back may begin.



On a broader level,
I expect there is a good chance (perhaps about 50/50), that price will at some point come back and test the strength of the LIS+ level.
Those odds reduce, and the level to which price comes back, the higher price moves before it eventually draws out enough supply to turn it around and cause some form of (modest) pull back.

That is how I currently interpret the price action and sentiment, no guarantee it is the analysis is correct (I am always ready to change my analysis if the price action proves me wrong, or if a serious change in sentiment takes place).

Hopefully that helps a bit.

cheers

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