Only going to post on this once
I feel very sorry for holders of this stock, I am aware of it and looked into it with a brief trade about two years ago - not trying to rub salt in
I know it looked so good - AS had all the lines and all the hype (I wondered about that though...)
But there was something majorly wrong with this the whole that defys a basic investment principle - if people had known they would have been able to avoid the pitfall
It is this...
The most important investment ratio is ROE - return on equity - what return investors get on every dollar they put in
The best businesses have the strongest models and the best returns on equity and capital
Of course with stocks that are not profitable you have to look at the underlying business to work out if all of the capital or debt is going to get a return in the future - a spec punt - some work, most don't - the best I have found are close to cash flow positive not burning $50 mill a year
Basically this one has been sucking up literally $100s million of capital on the hope of major deals - it is a big end punt and always has been - it is why I stayed away - cash burn is ridiculous - there just comes a point where you need to produce a profit - sure they could still, but if the price keeps falling and they have to raise capital it could get very ugly here - and oh yes it could better believe it - seen it all before
Not advice on what to do with this a but IMO if you are on major losses - spend some good time understanding what a good business rather than flogging a dead horse and try to find some among the 2,200 stocks on the ASX (Roger Montgomerys stuff is a good start, though he doesn't do specs)
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