TPG and IInet, page-10

I agree, iiNet brand will be tarnished, diminished  ..and or, totally destroyed.

The question is what is that worth, what was the premium paid and will the existing punters  remain long enough to make it worthwhile.  At $12+  it was too much of a gamble for me, but at under $7 and into $6, im back in to back Teoh.

The thing about telco services, is that they are simply a utility. As brand loyal as some people are, there are also an enormous number who will look for the low cost operator.   As demonstrated by TPG's early succes, people (myself included) will shop around to say $5 per month on their mobile, $10 per month on their internet.

Even over the year, this is only a couple of hundred dollars .. as much as dinner for a few people at a nice restaurant.  But people will shop around and move to save a dollar or three on their communications needs, then complain when the no frills service isn't up to speed with their telstra or premium one.  Not having a dig at yourself @West Coast, it sounds like you had the royal run-around.  But ultimately though, if anyone picks the lowest cost operator in the market, you are unlikely to be able to expect, demand or get an Australian employee at the end of the support line.

Some other companies are 100% Australian .. and charge more.

The FTTB is a repeat in my mind of TPG's early days of their DSL cherry picking.  The deployed their gear and made money hand over-first, only going into high density area where they could achieve excellent  return on their capital and infrastructure investment.  Check out the whirlpool threads for some interesting comments on the FTTB experience.  Whilst true, that reflects a tech-centric perspective, but the activation process and speeds etc sounds very positive.  The complains are that people are requesting connections, and getting long delays due to lack of ports.  Just like the good old DSL days.

People rightly get upset about the vaguety and run-arounds.. but again, its the price you pay for a low cost provider.  TPG will wait for demand, before putting in more gear, its all about the numbers.

If they can pull of something similar with mobile, or a complementary 4-5G service .. it could be the winning streak.

I envisage something like..

1. Deploy as much FTTB as possible .. work through the government regulatory constraints.
2. Get a mobile liscence or general specture, or partner/buy Voda
3. Build the fastest, but possibly smallest footprint and cheapest cellular wifi network in the country.
Probably only in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane first.  With the fibre in place, and access rights to buildings, leverage this to deploy the required broadcast equipment on buildings throgout already high density areas. 4. Offer the cheapest, fastest wireless based broadband service, with bundled 'traditional mobile SIM' broadband. ie: LTE 50Mb+ fixed wifi speeds at home and and corresponding mobile services. This would be available to a wider service area than their existing fibre footprint, but still limited coverage areas (like their original DSL roll-out)
5. Build out the model from there, into other areas .. as the model, cashflow and network supports.

If this all comes to be, its NBN agnostic, leverages what TPG do best . . build, acquire and sell service over their own infrastructure, with high margins and rake in cash.

There are obviously the existing business's to run, and these will likely tick along .. the Business and Corporate customers and services will continue to grow and largely unaffected by the NBN issues.

Its a potential option anyway, the more conservative telco investment approach would be go Telstra .. they will not likely be bankrupt in 10 years, .really a question of Risk vs Reward.

My totally un scientific view is that its much more likely that TPG will double or triple or more in the next 5 years. I think the chances of telstra doing that are nil.

Backing Teoh and the way things have worked out prior really. Not a whole lot more too it than that really.