TPG SIMBA's Insights

Hi Comrades,

How are you guys doing? There is nothing to fear with share price down around 35% in the last 5 weeks due mainly to market correction in tech/telecom stocks plus shorting. Around 19M (4% of TUA ) shares changed hand since 19/04/22 at $1.82. if someone want to sell a large portion they would do this in a block trade at say 5% discount, not continue selling it down for 5 weeks. Teoh and Millner are not interest in buying shares to prop the price, they only step in when someone is offloading a few million shares block.

We know that TUAS targets tourists, low income citizens, foreign worker from mainly India, Indonesian, Malaysia, Philippine and Bangladesh. This cohort completely disappear from Singapore in the last 2 years due to Covid until recently. There are roughly 19M visitor arrivals in Singapore every years before Covid, these visitors either pay for their data via Roaming or a new SIM card and I am sure that TPG will get a large share of this cohort with its super cheap mobile deals.

Singapore re-opened it’s border in November last year and we see SIMBA new customer sign-up rate shoot up immediately (25k for Aug/Sep/Oct and 69k for Nov/Dec/Jan). Total Visitor for Aug-Oct/2021 = 59k and for Nov-Jan/22 = 191k and next 3 months between Feb-Apr/2022 = 483k. Visitors from the above mentioned 5 countries jump from to 108k to 246k. Visitor arrival in Singapore for April is 294k compared to 121k in March. This number is expected to grow exponentially in the next 12/24 months as the world learn to live with Covid. I'll leave you guys to speculate as to the new number of sign-up for next quarter based on these numbers.

4G Network built was competed last October. This is very important as 95% of Singaporeans used their MRT trains daily and reluctant to sign on when there is no signal at some stations. This will help convince those that so far refuse to sign on.

All plans now have free Roaming data included, this will sell as Singaporeans are avid travellers.

5G – TUAS will probably bypass the 5G NSA and go direct to 5G SA since acquiring the SA spectrum in November last year. With 5G SA, the 5G SA Dual Core will control all the RAN (4G/5G NSA/5G SA) whereas in the 5G NSA scenario the 4G Core controls the 4G/5G NSA RAN. Why buy 5G NSA RAN now and replacing them in the next few years. TUAS can afford to delay 5G roll-out as it competes in the value end of the market where customer probably don’t care much about 5G yet. TUAS will roll-out 5G SA using Open-RAN (Non-Nokia/Ericsson/Huawei) equipment which is substantially cheaper in terms of Capex and Opex. Rakuten Mobile in Japan is the leader in this Open-RAN thing and they just received the best Telecom Operator Award of the year a few days ago. TPG SIMBA Chief Technology Officer (Benjamin Tan) is on the Open-RAN committee, he is issued share options as part of his package.

M&A – It would not surprise me if TUAS will acquire M1 to merge into 3 players as Singapore is a very small market. Singapore IMDA (ACCC) will probably won’t stop this because TPG does not have the 3.5Ghz 5G SA spectrum allocated to others and also Covid make it financially harder for everyone.

Below is the link to the Singapore Tourist Arrivals Stats, just select the year, skip the quarter and select the month(s) to see the details.

VisitorArrivals - Visitor Arrivals – Trends by Geography | Sheet - Qlik Sense(stb.gov.sg)

GoogleReview for TPG and local Forum chat sites (HarwareZone) in the last 6 months ismostly 5 stars. Facebook posts have very little complaints.

Just hang in there comrades, as I said before. It’s not worth Teoh and Millner’s efforts if they can’t see their investment return 500-1000%. So far the company is EBITDA positive, 7% market share, 4G roll-out completed, 5G SA coming soon. The next 12-36 months growth will be explosive as Singapore is again the Asian travel hub.

As always, this is not financial advices, please do your own research (DYOR).

Howie