TPI in strife. Unforeseeable?

I correspond privately with a few HC posters. About a yr ago one wrote to me and asked about TPI. Poster mentioned that HC poster 'Camden' had recommended TPI a couple of yrs ago and wanted my thoughts. I have a very high regard for Camden and miss his contributions, so i did some research. I replied saying TPI is far too risky and is overpriced. Several weeks went by and i became even more concerned and wrote to my other HC pals and said 'avoid this stk it is heading for a big fall'. Back then the SP was about 78c.

I keep an eye on TPI and was surprised when starting on 20 Jan SP suddenly firmed from 80.5c up to just above 90c. This action all being in the weeks leading into HY result. Hence, i took another look at TPI FA and came away thinking i may be wrong and Mr Mkt knows more than me. But i kept reminding myself about this sentence this sentence buried in the CEO's long AGM address in late October.

"These difficult trading conditions have continued into the current financial year and we expect them to remain so for the balance of the year." Another sentence talks about how " the industrial division will continue to face challenges". His speech convinced me that earnings were in strife and TPI faced a long haul before reasonable returns will eventuate. In space of a week SP has tanked 22% i.e. the HY result simply confirmed the warnings given to shareholders 4 months earlier. Avoid.