Moving into Australia's mobile market might prove to be the best...

Moving into Australia's mobile market might prove to be the best thing that TPG has done since buying iiNet, but there are risk of implementation (thinking of Vodafail), attracting users and stiff competition. All these are what is lying there on the surface, but there might be few that people have not yet mentioned or thought about:

- TPG retail brand is not as much liked as iiNet for instance (NPS score of 23 vs 63). It might be better for TPG to roll out mobile plans using either its iiNet brand or create a new one altogether (I think iiNet brand will a better idea)

- We can safely assume that TPG will compete on price, hence there will be low margins in mobile segment. However the role of the mobile or internet provider is changing. For instance, Optus has acquired exclusive English premier league rights which has helped growth its customer base. Which is why owners of the exclusive content in future might stifle amount of subscribers TPG will be able to attract beyond those who just want a cheaper price (thinking something along the lines of exclusive footy rights , origins games etc)

- It is important to note that TPG does not have spectrum rights for 5G (the next auction is circa 2020/21), if it does not purchase that it might be left behind. To make things worse, Silicon Valley (Google, Facebook and SpaceX) are investing into satellite that will cover whole globe providing high speed internet to the masses at the cheap price and at speeds higher than 5G or even normal broadband (https://arstechnica.com/information...lite-internet-with-low-latency-gigabit-speed/) rending TPG infrastructure semi-obsolete.

Although there are risks, TPG for me is still a buy. Most likely share price will drop given that new share offering will be dilutive and CAPEX spend for the next two years will be intense lowering FCF, but if TPG will pull this off we are looking at high SP in the next 3-4 years. Will be interesting to find out if HC agrees, and/or there are other concerns. Also if people think that TPG might now cut back on dividends?