Ponyboy - the 21% and 29% figures represent what is known as...

Ponyboy - the 21% and 29% figures represent what is known as Commercial Chance of Success (COS), which is calculated using a fairly complex formula that is internationally accepted, the inputs for the formula come from what data is known about the area to be drilled, including the geological model and it's historical success rate. Tangiers calculated 21% before the last round of seismic testing, Galp calculated 29% once that additional seismic data was factored in. For reference, most offshore exploration drills have a COS of 5-10% using same formula, so if you was a betting man this is the one that you would put your money on. I have.

What I would be interested in hearing is Vontrader's views of what the SP will do over the next couple of weeks (assuming that spudding is announced on Monday morning).