TPT got the goods., page-17

21% refers to Chance of Success based on key geological variables used to define a prospect. Generally 5 such variables commonly used r reservoir presence/quality, presence of a trap/structure, Source rock, presence of seal, maturation. 90% etc & their product is the final Cos.

Analysts use the above as a risk factor & this doesn't show the presence of oil until they encounter any HC shows & run sidewall cores/collect pressure data/ logs/collect fluid samples etc over the reservoir section.

If the Operator has shot its own highres 3Dseis then a Direct HC Indicator (DHI) factor is used to multiply the Cos to give a final GCos for the prospect.

The raw data is then dumped into a model for simulation to give a low-mean-high estimate of oil initially in place & chances of recovering it (18-30% for oil, 60-70% for gas). All part & parcel of maturing a prospect from desktop to actual drillability.

Should there b a known discvry in the area then that adds to the CoS, however most modellers r conservative in their approach to cover their backsides should the end result not come in line to their expectations. So 20% CoS is optimum for TPT given the nearby wells.

Note that Cairn confirmed a 110m column in the Upper Jurassic & were still evaluating the Mid-Jur data from the JM-1 well. Their Juby Maritime-1 well confirmed the oil column present 3.5km NE from MO-2 (TD 2983m) in the Uppr Jurassic which flowed at 2377 bopd in 1968-'69. Pls refer slide-14 from Cairn's Nov'13 preso's for a better struc/seismic section.

Tao-1 is apprx 80kms NE frm the JM-1 Cairn well & is a totally different structure with 3 targets, thus gives us a Net resource of 190 mmbbls to TPT (or 106 mmbbls net for the Mid Jurassic Trident prospect).

One usually gets an initial pre-spud rally with the SP, then a sideways action, prior to movement up/down depending on what the first 2 objectives come up with, so should b interesting price action after they set intermediate casing (usually 13" or 9") in 4-5 weeks post spuddng. GLTA.