TPT got the goods., page-32

I believe they upgraded and reported a 29% chance of success

I would have to agree with the 50% chance of early hydrocarbons

Early hydrocarbons should give weighting or at least speculation to that 29% chance of success, so you'd expect would send the SP to at least 75c - $1

So a 50:50 of it going to 75c-$1 prior to TD, and a 29% chance of somewhere between $1 - $8.50

And we still have people willing to sell at 26.5c before even a spud announcement - talk about cutting your upside well and truly short