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23,919 Posts.
752
23/06/14
13:18
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I believe they upgraded and reported a 29% chance of success
I would have to agree with the 50% chance of early hydrocarbons
Early hydrocarbons should give weighting or at least speculation to that 29% chance of success, so you'd expect would send the SP to at least 75c - $1
So a 50:50 of it going to 75c-$1 prior to TD, and a 29% chance of somewhere between $1 - $8.50
And we still have people willing to sell at 26.5c before even a spud announcement - talk about cutting your upside well and truly short
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