TPT got the goods., page-9

Can someone actually explain the odds of 21% vs a 79% chance of failure in regards to drilling for oil?

Is the 21% the actual odds say the way a casino calculates the probability of a certain outcome?

Alternately if 5 people were to run in a race you could argue that each of them have a 20% chance of winning Vs an 80% chance of losing. However we all know that the running abilities would vary between the runners. Therefore the results should be more favourable to one of the runners more often than not.

If the weather forecast was a 20% chance of rain. Although its only a 20% chance more often than not I still expect rain.

It would be great if someone could explain how the 21% is calculated and if this is considered favourable. Do you know of any other drill results for other companies where approximately a 20% chance of success was given and if they were favourable results or not?