http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1195664-1-10/tangiers-petroleum-spice-up-your-life
The Moroccan fiscal regime is extremely favourable, and we
believe that the market does not fully understand just how benign it is.
We estimate that for a 400MMbbl oil field development the NAV/bbl is
USS20/bbl, considerably above the rule-of-thumb US$10/bbl valuation
that seems to be put on oil discoveries by the market. Additionally,
Tangiers’ main prospects are in 100m of water, meaning that in the case
of a commercial discovery any development project would be far less
costly than a similarly sized deepwater discovery. The combination of
large prospect size, shallow water location and the Moroccan fiscal
regime means that we estimate that the Trident prospect is worth
US$156m (A¢65/share) risked and US$2,245m (A¢940/share) unrisked.
We estimate that the current fair value of Tangiers’ shares is
A$0.87 (48.2p), which is about 3x above its A$0.28 (14.8p) price on 5
June 2014. Tangiers Petroleum is a high-risk, speculative investment. In
our ‘success’ scenario we estimate Tangiers’ shares could be worth
A$3.31 (182p) by end-2014..
E.
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