tpt to takeover jka at 11.2c per share, page-18

Crows,

I'm not forgetting TPT's cash - I'm writing it off as most probably lost.

The more I look at this Morocco stuff the less I like it. JKA must see something in it or they wouldn't be going ahead, but it looks really high risk stuff.

Only 8 wells drilled offshore since 2000 and bugger-all discoveries - and the closest discovery was biodegraded 12 API.

People make it sound like this is up there with Hammamet, but it's not. Hammamet is surrounded by economic fields, this is a drilling ghost town. The big boys drilled here and then moved on to greener pastures.

That doesn't mean it's barren of course, far from it, but it does mean it's high risk. TPT rate is a 23% COS, and they are almost certainly optimistic, so that means even in a best-case scenario we have more than a 75% chance of failure.

The best way to look at it is that TPT's Morocco drill is lost. This is exactly the type of investment I was trying to avoid when I bought into JKA, in fact I said it just last week or so. I don't want to invest in any of these one-trick ponies which are all boom-or-bust. Because at least 75% of those one-trick ponies fail, and then they have no money and no prospects and all shareholder wealth is destroyed.

TPT realise this so they are latching onto JKA as a life-support system. When Morocco fails, which is overwhelmingly likely, they will have JKA's permits for another shot.

Very good management by TPT's board. Not sure about JKA's though.

I'll give you my prediction for Morocco right now, and will be happy to be proven wrong. The well will come in with oil shows and possibly sub-commercial flows, but will fail because of poor reservoir.

Hopefully in 9 months or so we'll find out how my prediction goes. :)