There are too many variables in the mix to make any sensible...

There are too many variables in the mix to make any sensible assessment, not least size/type/commercialty/company cash position and so on. Upon a find it takes more appraisal drills to determine some of these and in the meantime the sp can get blown around like a rag doll in a hurricane. Then there's factors outside the actual company operations, such as general market sentiment at the time, political situ (which for Morocco I believe is good) etc etc. Oil explo is frontier investing/gambling, especially with small players where one drill can be make or break, its a world away from logical, measured analysis of investment stats!