Tracking Valuations, page-125

Some extracts from @ecoool2 Post #:45124599

Remember that the valuations of MSB add up to $A15 to $A20 if the probability discounts are removed from Heart and Back Pain. Covid-19 would be multiples of these values if it comes off. The upside from Covid-19 is NOW - we'll either know if it is going to be approved or not within the next 3 months (we are already 1 month into the 3-4 months trial). And the need to sign a deal with a big pharma or government comes soon after that.

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This Friday we should see the announcement that MSB is going to enter the ASX200 Index - and that will happen after the close of business on Friday 19th June - that should see enormous volume buying by index funds at the final match price on the 19th. There will probably also be crossing going through after the match by smart funds who buy before the Index inclusion and then sell on to the Index funds at the closing match price. I think the buying on the last day of May is just a taste of what may happen on June 19. I don't think most of the ASX200 funds are yet in Mesoblast and I don't see how they can get set without pushing the price significantly higher.

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For those who think MSB has run too hard, have a look at Z1P, a stock I highlighted was being hit as hard as MSB in the selloff back in March as small cap managers suffered redemptions and were forced to liquidate small cap shares. Z1P has since rallied from $A1.05 to $A6.53 - nearly double the performance of MSB over the same timeframe - it has rallied from being oversold and being a potential beneficiary of Covid-19. Exactly the same applies to MSB, yet it has only rallied from $A1.01 to $A3.76. I believe the potential upside for MSB is much higher. For goodness sake, a low-tech iron ore miner like FMG can rally from $A3.50 to $A15 in the past 18 months - surely a high-tech stock like MSB can do better than that when it is potentially solving the most pressing aspects of the biggest global health and economic crises in 100 years!!!