With all the talk around of the Covid-19 ARDS trial i thought I'd do a very basic/quick analysis of the potenial value of ARDS approval (all types not just covid):
- Nih estimates occurance of ARDS in the US of 64.2-74.9/per 100,000
- USA population is 331m so estimated cases of ADRS = 212,000-247,000 annually
- 75% are classified as moderate or severe, so let's assume 25% are severe = 53,000-61,750 severe ARDS annually
- assume a conservative cheaper single dose treatment of $50,000= potential addressable market of $2.65b-$3.087b annually
- assuming a conservative cost base of 40%, in terms of sp this adds $113-$132 worth of value to the sp (assuming a p/e ratio of 41.8).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK436002/#:~:text=Acute%20respiratory%20distress%20syndrome%20(ARDS)%20is%20a%20life-threatening,injury%20and%20diffuse%20alveolar%20damage.
With all the talk around of the Covid-19 ARDS trial i thought...
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