Hi wombat777
Firstly, I just wanted to say thank you to yourself and the many other HotCopper posters who are helping uninformed newbies like myself fomr a view on the valuation of this stock.
Secondly, I wanted to just test a few assumptions with you
1) On the COVID-19 ARDS US model - I feel like a positive clinical trial outcome on Rem-L / ARDS is going to 'market itself', so I query whether a 30% royalty will be the 'right' deal for MSB in a US context. If I interpret their US strategy they really want to run the shiow there, eg: the paediatric US aGvHD 'go to market' strategy looks very tight - albeit requiring a small distribution effort relative to COVID ARDS. (Also, no disrespect to Bell Potter but i'm not quite sure the Australian analyst market is on top of this stock. Also felt like the BP analyst asked some relatively unimportant questions on the H1 analyst call, so i'm not judging favourably. The majority of Aust insto investors can't buy 'small med tech' stocks which aren't profitable, so there is limited analyst effort coming from them [for now]. More power to the great people on this chat forum who are investors.)
2) Would you give any thought to label extensions for Crohn's disease etc or is it too early. It would be interesting to understand the probability of success on achievement of label extensions in general. I haven't seen anything around the value of label extensions but the CEO does mention 20+ for rem-L so you would think there's some risk adjusted value in that too
3) The Net Profit Margin of 13.5% - seems very conservative and perhaps more in line with mature pharma/bio businesses?
4) The Dawson James initiation coverage outlines a revenue projection model & underlying assumptions for each product by condition. I felt like the DJ analyst asked the most insightful questions on the last investor call (my naïve judgement on how i'm rating the MSB analysts). While it may be too early to go this granular on a MSB valuation, you may find his assumption set informative.https://dawsonjames.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/MESO.-Initiation.12.19.2019.f.pdf
Overall, I see a lot of conservatism in your valuation, which is fantastic because it still shows material upside to today. I'm in.
Thank you again
GS
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