Tracking Valuations, page-278

Carrying debt at 10% is overly conservative. Nothing in your spreadsheet is doing anything with the profits from prior years, I sincerely doubt they will be paying dividends, so you can probably expect a significant amount of it will be invested and earning income (albeit rather small). This level of positive cashflow would likely mean an acceleration of investigations and trials, so profits will likely be lower than you have estimated as they expand their staff to meet the wider opportunities that having cash gives them. I would also not be surprised if they used cash/paper to fund some strategic takeovers - though that can be very distracting for management.

Of course we still need to get past step 1: Approval for aGVHD, which is no certainty despite the strong panel vote. Remember some of those panel votes were by the skin of their teeth - one panelist explicitly mentioned voting YES by a margin of 51/49 in her head. Even Jorge Garcia who was a strong advocate on the panel was slightly equivocating in his vote explanation. The early adult double-blind trial that didn't reach significance (trial 280 as it was called in the ODAC meeting) may still weigh heavily on the FDA - I hope not, and I think the evidence of efficacy for children who have no other available treatments should outweigh this, but no-one knows how the FDA is thinking.