FWIW...I see it as irrelevant.
BSM have committed 50% of nameplate production to the EU.
Once in operation, I imagine they want to:
A... Initially, See how much they can consistently produce over that 50%..
B... Determine their %'s of various flake sizes.
C... Have surplus product to sell on the spot market and take advantage of price movements.
I am assuming they are also cost competitive....
One commentator's thoughts on steel...:
World has little to fear from Trump’s tariff hikes on steel
The world steel industry will easily absorb the effect of the Trump administration’s tariff increases, with the US steel industry no longer important enough to have a global impact.
- The Australian
- 12:00AM March 6, 2018
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- David Uren
Economics Editor
Canberra
The share of world steel production by US steel mills has dropped from 12 per cent two decades ago to less than 5 per cent, while China’s share soared from 15 per cent to 50 per cent.
US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the tariffs are intended to raise the operating level of its remaining steel mills from 73 per cent to 80 per cent.
Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar estimates this would divert a maximum of about 9 million tonnes of steel that might have been intended for the US back onto the world market. It is equivalent to a tiny 0.5 per cent of world steel production, and about 1.7 per cent of world steel trade.
In the steel industry, it is what China does that matters. Trade tensions rose when China’s economy slowed in 2015 and its steel mills responded to the shortfall in domestic demand by boosting exports. Both Europe and the US mounted anti-dumping actions in protest.
But in the past year, China’s economic growth was stronger than expected and the surplus for export dived by 34 million tonnes to 62 million tonnes. The fall in China’s exports is about four times greater than the surplus steel hitting world markets from the US actions.
The insignificance of the US action was highlighted by China’s National Development and Reform Commission announcement yesterday that it would complete its plan to cut the nation’s steel capacity by 150 million tonnes — about double the entire US industry — this year with a final 30 million tonnes of capacity cuts two years ahead of schedule. For Australia’s iron ore miners, cuts to China’s capacity can translate to good news, as the remaining steel mills will be more dependent on high-quality Australian iron ore.
The real problem with the US action is what comes next as US trading partners retaliate and the tit-for-tat row escalates to something more serious.
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