The market continues to grow, and perhaps a little more stronger lately.
In my 8-Jul-2014 post on the world indices thread the S&P500 performance during the earnings reporting period in the US is discussed. Unfortunately my SP500 long trade from 8-Jul was stopped out due to my stop simply being just a whisker too tight. However, the SP500 performance from the last 3 days suggests that the overall SP500 performance over the earnings reporting period will indeed repeat history and gain over this period.
Back to the when will it end question, somebody on CNBC was espousing the following line of thought this morning.
US 10yr bonds are presently at 2.5 to 2.6%.
While bonds are at the above level people will continue putting their money into stocks to obtain a higher return.
When bonds reach 3% there will be a rapid spike in bonds to 3.5% as people start to lean towards the safety of bonds and the marginally higher returns compared to the present level of approximately 2.5%.
The sudden uptick in bonds as it moves from 3% to 3.5% will be accompanied by a stock market correction.
The question that remains is when will bonds reach 3%. Probably as early as when QE ends, but maybe not until the Fed gets serious about raising interest rates. The present target is for QE to end in October (wasn't that the month of the 1987 crash). Hence, perhaps this bull market could run until October before a decent correction kicks in. That is, perhaps post 2000 on the SP500 will not be 'linked' to the start of a correction.
All I know at the moment is that I have found trading quite difficult the last couple months in particular. I can have a couple good winning trades, but the profits get squashed out by 3 or 4 smaller losing trades. I have been following Facebook lately and noted that the stock price is unbelievably erratic, very difficult to trade. By the way, when I say I have been following Facebook, I mean only following the Facebook stock price as I don't have a Facebook account, twitter account, etc.
October 19th is a Sunday this year, but lookout for Friday 17-Oct or Monday 20-Oct. That is, if the present bull market lasts that long, I would not like to be holding long trades at that time.
