Hi Jongo, yep I reckon you are correct. BUT in the 2000 s the cracks and falls were initially mid August in 2007 and 2008. The ASX peaked Nov 2007 at 6700 after cracking in Aug, that is when I took out my PUTs on ASX .
Problem is I think most hedge fund and big managers think exactly like you and we al think we will get out in time and be there for the crash. The S&P 500 is slightly weaker on rises than DOW. I am currently down $30 000 for year as of yesterday some shares I feel strongly long term they have fundamental problems so will continue to hold shorts. viz APN, CSL, HVN JBH and MQG. CBA is a funny one could go higher but todays interim report should shed some light into financial planning. Insurance companies ie SUN will have to fit the bill but may close these shorts for now if I need funds. I have closed all DAX FOOTSIE S&P and DOW rely on my bear shares for longer term perspective.
I assume today will be up as usual?
