Mower, an NCM chart would be handy if you can annotate the chart and point to key info. I would do the same, but I haven’t received my new installation of BullCharts yet. I am keen to try and get into trades reasonably early, if that strategy continues to work for me. Perhaps it will prove to be a successful early call today, perhaps not. However, I opened the NCM short at the opening auction this morning at 1128, and the SP closed near the low for the day at 1115, hence, not a bad start.
My FMG lower stop was hit today, and in hindsight I think that in this case my FMG exit strategy could have been better. My thoughts on what was right, what was wrong, and how I could have done better with my FMG exit strategy are listed below. If anybody has any thoughts on more profitable exit strategies when ‘news’ is imminent, I would be interested to hear.
* While the FMG trade was increasing I regularly moved my lower stop (profit protector) up and also moved my upper stop (profit taker) up in line with the let your profits run, cut your losses, and protect your profit theory.
* My FMG lower stop trigger today was 590, which I considered to be tight, but in hindsight it could have been tighter.
* With the FMG half yearly report issued today, I was thinking in advance that it would be a ‘sell the news’ scenario. However, my strategy was that there are so many fundamental positives for FMD recently, that I thought that FMG would continue powering on after the half yearly report was issued. The scenario that actually played out was ‘sell the news’. Hence, in hindsight I should have tightened up both my lower and upper stops. Yesterday my upper stop was 605. Hence, if I had not increased that to 640 this morning, it would have been hit and I would have sold FMG for 605 instead of 590. The extra profit would have bought quite a lot of beer.
* If I had subscribed to the ‘sell the news’ strategy then a very profitable strategy would have been to close all of my FMGs and simultaneously open a swag of FMG shorts. I suspect that several experienced traders would have done this today. Maybe next time.
My WPL lower stop of 3820 was also hit today. I only made a small profit on this trade, and originally I only included WPL in order to add a bit of diversity to the set of long trades that I opened on 10-Feb.
The BHP trade is still doing well, despite the slight pullback today. The daily RSI has just touched 70. Hence, despite very encouraging broker targets for BHP recently, I might tighten up my BHP stops considerably in order to protect my profit.
The CBA trade is also still doing well, but not as good as the BHP trade. The daily RSI chart is very distorted due to the $1.83 dividend paid on Monday. CBA had a good run today, hence, depending on what happens overseas tonight, I might leave my CBA stops a bit loose to let the profit run.
The TLS trade is still doing ok, and the daily RSI still has room to move up, but I am in two minds with what to do with this trade as TLS goes ex-div on Monday 24-Feb. Any ideas?
