Hi jongo, The long promised reply for a chart on your NCM trade. Remember no fancy chart from me these days. I KISS=keep it simple stupid. The comments reflect my method. I respect that all traders have their own method, as do you. I comment on the run up trade, in hindsight, to illustrate my method. I then comment or your "early" entry for short. Your entry does seem to have been a beauty!! Well Done!
A: Cross of MACD is first signal. No entry yet as candle is holding EMA10.
B: Likely entry for long. Candle is moving through EMA lines.
C: Each time red candles "suggest" that it could close long and/or open short. BUT each time it respected EMA10 and kicked up higher. Except the last one. This was around your "early" entry. It could have, at that point, bounced again off the EMA10. It did not of course but that is the type of confirmation I look for.
D: This is more my early entry point for short. MACD crossed (tick), candle dropped through the EMA10 and touched EMA20. I would probably like a candle under EMA20 for more confirmation.
As you see I pay BIG attention to the EMA10. Trends generally run along, or often touch, that line. A break of that line often signals a change.
