Freakme,
Good comments! I also believe there is plenty more to happen before HDR is handed over by management...
I have no doubt that the Tullow offer appears an attractive proposition, particularly looking at the shareprice in the recent months. I can also appreciate the 'civility' of the offer, ie, no opportunistic on-market grab for a stake (if you believe the Merrill stake was purchased independently!!), discussions with Potter and HDR Board, offering of cash or shares in Tullow, etc.
But, on the other hand, the offer is opportunistic in many repects! To my mind these include:
- Oil price at 2 year lows;
- Chinguetti reserve doubts leading to lower market expectations;
- Tiof discounted due to Chinguetti problems;
- Conservative Uganda reserve estimate in conjunction with Tullow (conflict of interest?);
- Guyana farm out gone missing;
- Suspicious build up of 10% stake by ML undisclosed to the market for 3+ months!!
Probably loads more that I have missed but I will definitely be hanging on for the ride in the coming few weeks!
Cheers
Merkin
HDR
hardman resources limited
