trading below 20% of value

What a day for NGE. Thought it was going to hold the 18.5 cent mark until someone decided they were in a hurry to exit. Terrible lead from the Dow has struck fear into the portfolios of many that are probably over leveraged and overconfident due to the positive asx march this year.

I'm classifying sellers into 5 types of traders/investors;
1. Long term holders that deserve to take some profits
2. Those short/medium holders panicing and taking profits while they can
3. Those redeploying capital elsewhere on better short term opportunities
4. Those cutting losses that bought in higher and too impatient to stick around for the turn
5. Those that are using the selling pressure of those above to trade out and back in at a lower price. Some of these people are probably on HC and you can't blame them for taking candy from the babies - good trading...so far

Don't think it's a major reducing position if the person posting is correct that it has mainly been retail sized sells - it appears that way to me on the screen but I haven't reviewed stats yet.

What they don't realise is that they have turned NGE into a junk stock pricing it a market cap of 75 million at close today. I often wonder whether people chasing a bolting stock keep and eye on the marcap of the share as in 10min of emotion fuelled trading you can see the asx's most underpriced stock go the most overpriced or vice versa. Not sure what the charts can identify irrational selling behaviour but NGE is well overdue for a wake up call.

To the valuation methods. I was going to redo the NPV's of potential finds but I think at these levels there is no point. Using what Tailsman valued our permits at I can get my point across and show why 16.5 cents should be the next 12 monthly low.

All we have is our permits – but it’s enough!
- Limited seismic done which identified 7 drillable prospects and 84 leads with big potential but on this very day no proven or probable reserves - aside from the seep.
- Tailsman has valued a 50% interest 2 of our permits at approx US45m (AUD56m*) and US40m (AUD50m*). Very similar to the valuation they just did with Horizen. Like us NGE shareholders, they do not know for sure what they will find so this is the price they have attached based on the risk. It's a current market valuation.
- NGE has 6 permits. We kept 100% of the most attractive one with the seep, Tailsman you could assume are taking 50% of the next most attractive 2 then the other 3 would follow with a lower valuation.
- Valuations have to be in AUD to make it easier to compare to our market cap. Also make sure you take 100% of 4 that Tailsman don't have a stake in yet so you can make your own assumptions for the $value these. I'm assuming our land is valued at 120 (100% oil seep) + 56(50% talisman – actual valuation) + 50(50% talisman – actual valuation) + 80 (100% other) + 70 (100% other) + 60 (100% other) = 436m

75mil market cap vs $436mil worth of permits. 457mil shares on issue put values us at nearly $1! Goes to show the high valuation a Multinational like Tailsman attaches to the prospects we have. Just taking the 2 Tailsman permits you arrive at a valuation to NGE holders above our current market cap. Maybe we should vote at the next AGM to have NGE wound up because even in a 50% reduction in a distressed sale we would still be getting 50 cents a share.

Tailsman deal is signed and sealed with Gov approval from PNG the only pending but I really don’t think those exiting or holding the price back really believe this won’t get through.

So there it is holders - irrational trading behaviour is making NGE look like a junk stock where the numbers are telling us we have rocket. NGE won't be overlooked for much longer with nearly $1 value for 16.5 cents.

DYOR
BG

*USD to AUD @ 80cents