trading data for gdaoa analysis

Further to my earlier post today on the "a" options,I have printed the last six days trading in GDAOA to illustrate the support for share price movements in these options or any option where there are sufficient numbers purchased for a fixed dollar amount compared to a fewer number of shares in a more expensive share.

The data shows that on friday last week, the 4th, the day of the asx announcement of the exploration update, gdaoa options were not "in the money". The volume and increase in vwap since then has been strong, showing the vwap since the 4th of 1.7c, 2.9c, 2c, 2c, and 1.6c yesterday (rounded).

12.6 million gdaoa were traded on the 7th with an opening price and high so far of 3.2c on the 8th jan 08 (last tuesday when the heads were trading at new highs of 6c). This strong high of just 2.8c under the heads (GDA) gives an indication of the market value of gdaoa when "in the money"
Forcast forward to a heads price of 10c, it could be reasonable to expect therefore,a gdaoa price of 7.2c if the heads trade around 10c.

A high for gdaoa of between 1.9c and 3.2c has been recorded an each trading day since the 7th. This and the reasonably consistently high vwap, at a time when the heads (gda had two down trend days and a rise yesterday of .001c.
This indicates interest in the gdaoa and that the heads (GDA) will rise and that there is an expectation that gdao will be "in the money" prior to being exercised (5c exercise by the 30th june 08).
Liquidity has been maintained. It is not intended to exercise the option before the consolidation and opportunities may arise for high returns subject to the movement of the heads (GDA). An increase in trading of gda above 5.5c to 6c will probably test higher new highs, higher lows and higher vwap's for gdaoa.
Post consolidation it is expected that there will be few options in the market for gdaob and most of the existing gdaoc are expected to be converted. Subject to a majority vote of shareholders this month, there will be new gdaoc options with an exercise price of 12 c, and if the heads are trading post consol' around the $1.00 level, the gdaoc could possibly be trading around the 90c level and gdaoa around the 60c level with no premium and 72c with a consistent premium carrying though from the trading highs so far (last tuesday the 8th). GDAOA would therefore be the cheapest entry into Gondwana in February (assuming consol has occurred).


Date VWAP Volume Value Trans Open High Low Close
11/01/2008 1.546 1840888 28466 16 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.015
10/01/2008 1.985 117878 2340 4 0.02 0.02 0.019 0.019
09/01/2008 1.977 1073284 21224 8 0.021 0.021 0.019 0.02
08/01/2008 2.942 1856000 54620 19 .032 0.032 0.025 0.025
07/01/2008 1.71 12618430 215880 70 0.009 0.026 0.008 .026
04/01/2008 0.727 2077000 15116 10 0.006 0.01 0.006 0.008

I hold GDA, GDAOA and GDAOC.
cheers Fatstocks.