I see the same trends for both Lithium and Nickel and I can't believe everyone in the western world is falling for the great Chinese bluff.
Both lepidolite based lithium and laterite based nickel usually require high cost operations, quite often in the second and third cost quarter on the production cost curve. These days Chinese literally process anything and I mean anything to boost supply and to drive down commodity prices in their strategic markets required for EV production. With lithium, they use African DSO (unprocessed Ore shipped) and domestic lepidolite, both, which require more energy and time to get the same end products, not to mention the impurities they might have for battery grade chemicals.
Same rule is applicable on laterite nickel. We all know it's not cheap, in fact PT Mardeka an Indonesian metal producer own and operate mines, HPAL and battery chemical facilities with Tsingshan (Chinese firm) and they recently reported a nickel pig iron (“NPI&rdquo production for the q1 quarter of 9,368t at an AISC of $15,436/t. The current grade 1 nickel price is $15,934, which means their Ni sales barely even cover their operations, let alone other capex and margins. In other words Chinese with nickel in Indonesia and domestically with lithium are bleeding money left and right. They can't sustain production without massive subsidies or losses copped.
I believe all they want to achieve with this move is driving out current producers, decreasing competitionb and devalue deposits. Once that happened, they can snap up world class assets like Jag for peanuts, then they can further strengthen their position to create a monopoly and operate those assets with a hefty margin.
Don't panic people!
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