Trading Halt Blues, page-26

Hi Insaf;

Good Morning!

These results are only a small depth and slice, a beginning of a beginning. Control over the SP is beyond us but if the management and dirt and kingmakers and cash and low debt and structure and equipment and labor are all behind you; I call this the "Logical Financial Premise"; the LFP - We can make make short term, mid-term and long-term deductions and form conclusions from LFP's. For example low debt is a LFP, Kingmakers are a LFP, Capital Exchange Advantage = LFP, Seasons are a LFP, and so on.

Focusing on the LFP's and making conclusions allows us to develop knowledge and falsify our thinking, refining our knowledge. We see in peoples posts LFP's with false conclusions and a unwillingness to falsify their logic. There are so many things out of our control and our emotions take over to our detriment.

In situations like this where the SP can pull back again just because when these small caps re-evaluate it takes time to build its base of accumulators and build breakout confidence. We know for certain it can climb, fall and stall here.

Does the price reflect the value right now?

Regardless of what happens now, value always shines through right?

When I research I like to go an inch wide and mile deep, drilling down and making conclusions, this is why I then make predictions and test and measure. I predicted BBR at .28 when it cracks .40 would try and crack .70 and it fell short at .65 - This made me re-look at my premises and conclusions but fortunately the change in price did not change my LFP's, in fact they grew in number.

So instead of hoping I focus on what I know and what I conclude. I conclude it is under-valued, over-sold, under-priced and so up or down, rain or shine I try and reign in my emotions.


You can see me using LFP's in my above post to Jareb:

1/ MRF news flow as good as BBR - This logical deduction is not unreasonable.

2/ Half way is not an unreasonable target between BBR and MRF, that being said MRF is sitting on mines we know were not exhausted and has ultimately as much, if not more going for it.

3/ BBR also hit up against .28 for some time, MRF I think wont do so for as much time but half way is a logical place for consolidation and pull back opportunities.

4/ At this level the number of shares is not greatly significant, more important is the dirt and management. There so much more leverage from MRF; its dragging on all the other Veiners, but with such a large imbalance is that any surprise.

5/ MRF is going to look at cracking .40 just like BBR and having a go at .70 - I would not be surprised if MRF followed closely BBR. I see the re-evaluation being more then just catch up with BBR though, now I see it as Flakers catching onto what Vein Graphite is to begin with. Any chance under .50 for MRF is a winner in my way of looking at it just because I expect .90 to 1.20 to be more on offer in the months to come. Just like SYR, MRF has something the market wants badly.

6/ MRF targets reasonable and continuous. News the market likes.

7/ For now what is critical for the next waves of re-evaluation will be the .14 level. However long or short it takes that will be huge. I would not count on those selling above the watermark to leave their offers on the table just because they will be looking at the .28 level for a big blow off.


You can see here many examples of Logical Deductions and LFP's. If this then that. For example the very last line of my prognostications, when it cracks .14 is it logical to deduce people will pull their offers? Is there going to be a big profit taking at the old BBR decision levels? How can we use BBR experience to make predictions about MRF?

What I did when BBR went into a trading halt is I focused on my LFP's, I tried to falsify them, and stayed true to my own thoughts and research. Logic has its limits, Fundamentals have there limits, whatever we do has its limits.

I don't know if this helps the Trading Halt Blues!

Stevie Ray Vaughan - The Slow Blues






Kind Regards

PS - DYOR