No, I would strongly suspect the announcement will be on...

No, I would strongly suspect the announcement will be on Thursday (ASX time) and will be released just before the start of Thursday trading on the ASX. In past trading halts, announcements have always been on the day the halt ends, never before. The rise that I believe will happen tommorow will be based on anticipation.

A placement doesn't work in the same way as a drawdown. The II's will get the shares allocated to them at a date in the future (normally a couple of weeks after the placing is announced) and then they'll sell them off.

Placings are a bit wierd when it comes to SP action. Some don't affect the share price, and others force it down to placing levels. It depends on whether the market believes the placing is a positive. In thi case, no, I do not see a retrace to placing price at all- it's not as if we 'had' to do this placing, we're doing it because there's a value proposition.

Traditionally with RRS the placings are at around a 20% discount to current SP. So I'd expect the placement shares to be issued for 17-18p.

It's hard to say what the total effect on the share price will be from taking Trinidad, because you're trying to put a price on that crucial thing- security. 700bopd is not a huge amount at first- raises around 9 million a year, so at 10x earnings that's a value of around $90m, which is about what we're getting the asset for. But with the work programme to increase this to 3600bopd (let's call it a 5x increase), that shifts the value to $450m (assuming we can also move some of those P3 reserves to P1 and P2 at the same time as doing this). If we make a discovery in the Herrera formations and get more thousands of bopd flowing from there, the upside is of course even greater. Basically we're getting all the exploratory upside thrown in for free at current prices, and all the development upside too.

Knowing that development programme is moving along allows a patient investor to take part in the Georgia+Puntland drills knowing that if we suffer setbacks, your money is still safe (well, as safe as it gets in the stock market, obviously nothing is without risk, but as far as oil exploration is concerned drilling appraisal wells and fraccing to increase flow rates is just about the lowest risk activity you can do) providing you can wait for the 3600bopd figure once the fields are developed.

Each drill will only cost us $1.5m in Trinidad, so there's no capital risk from any disappointment in the Herrera wells. It's a close to a 'dead cert' as you can get really.

With the knowledge that in 3 years the development programme will safeguard any investment at this point, I'd expect a move up to test 30p shortly, as the market will have to add some risk to balance the increased reward. Remember that the two wells at 80% CoS in Georgia are by themselves worth around 20p (at some point I'll redo the exact calculations to account for the extra drawdown shares), and we've got 5p secured for Texas as well.

With that in mind, in a few weeks when we're spudding Georgia, I'd say 35-38p. It is then of course up to the individual investor whether he wants to take the risk with the drill bit.