CB (and whomever else is interested)Commercial flow rates vary...

CB (and whomever else is interested)

Commercial flow rates vary from company to company and they are often pegged to Operating Expenditure (OPEX) commitments and Capital Expenditure commitments (CAPEX).

Each case is different, because a company with a gross profit margin on their oil production of lets say $10/bbl would require higher flow rates to be viable when you consider the cost of getting the oil out and storage and shipping.

A company with a profit margin closer to $40-50/bbl would require a much smaller flow rate to be commercial.

There are many wells to look at in the United States (Particularly in the shale fields and in Texas) but if you want one closer to home, AWE Limited has a 220Bopd operation in the Perth Basin and that seems to be doing them quite well (among others obviously).
Buccaneer's production well in the Eagle Ford Shale is producing 200Bopd - another example of Texan low-flow commercial projects.
Aus Tex oil (AOK) amazingly has a production well of only 5Bopd!!!!! Admittedly they also have other wells in that Oklahoma site producing, totaling about 150Bopd, and they have another site in Kansas flowing 250bopd
Grand Gulf Energy (GGE) has reportedly lifted flow rates to 200Bopd

I guess the point is, the flow rates can be low and still viable. Of course we'd be hoping for 400-1000Bopd to make this one a really big first hit, but what we need to keep in mind is proving the theory. If Surprise flows, perhaps the case expands to (a) drill more holes to boost production to double, triple, quadruple its current (whatever that turns out to be) and perhaps re-drill Johnstone. With our American on board, we seem to be surging forwards whereas Johnstone was an absolute calamity. John Heugh seemed to remark a few times that Johnstone could still hold value if re-drilled properly. Just an idea anyway.

I tried to recently calculate my valuation of CTP given certain scenarios with production and perceived profit margins (Using EPS, P/E). I am sure no one wants me to go over that again, but I am happy to post some more examples and scenarios for CTP if it is desired.

RB