Enjoy your posts. I agree totally with your general conclusion:
"LYC is not broke or desperate nor stupid. Siemens and BASF haven't put any money on the table yet so they don't need mentioning..nor the other secret contracts. So this is either Sojitz or something left field..I favour the Latter".
However your numbers don't look right to me. It's been generally accepted by most analysts that at the end of September, Lynas had approx $122 million in cash yet the remaining budget on the project was still about $144 million at that time. Then there's short term blowouts.
The company does has its $125 million working capital facility in place with JPMorgan Chase and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. However, POL approval for the refinery is understood to be a condition of drawing down on this debt. I reckon they do need a top up. Hopefully your best scenario will eventuate. Virtually anything other than a CR would be good. Wouldn't be surprise if there's a Japanese connection in the wind.
Cheers FreoDoc
LYC Price at posting:
$1.28 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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