trading halt, page-2

I am sure we have all had a lot on our minds over the weekend and with great anticipation and expectation of the week ahead I could not help myself from doing some back of the envelope numbers on what the TNG SP would be worth once it was in full production.

So to get the ball rolling for what should be an interesting week my assumptions on the things that will drive a SP rerating in the weeks and months ahead are as follows:

1. The Chinese companies alrady invested in TNG are willing and committed to building a mine if the PFS and subsequent DFS deliver a project that meets all normal financial return hurdles.
2. The TIVAN process has achieved beyond all reasonable doubt satisfactory levels of recovery of all three metals
3. All government and local approvals can be achieved quickly
4. Capex and Opex assumptions are achievable
5. Number of Shares on issue, fully dilluted = 428m
6. PE ratio is 10:1 (bearing in mind BHP is currently 8:1) as the market will be more normal levels by the time production begins plus also remember this mine has a potential life of 17 years ++++ at the moment and their is confidence or a belief that reserves can be increased by further drilling in the Mt Peake area.
7. We can within the next 6 months achieve 15% of the final SP that we can expect once mine production is at target levels.

OK here goes with my near term SP estimate once the project is in production in several years time

NPAT $50m SP = $1.16 15% = 17.5c
NPAT $100m SP = $2.34 15% = 35.0c
NPAT $150m SP = $3.50 15% = 52.6c

I dont recall exactly how Old Park lane came up with their current valuation of 45c but it does fall within the range that I have listed above. A coincidnece perhaps??

To be realistic ther are many barriers to share price growth in the next few weeks:
1. Current economic malaise in Europe
2. No great success stories of Vanadium mines in Australia
3. Scepticism of good news stories in the current market.
4. Stories of a market slow down in China
5. TNG is a minnow and will lack a certain anmount of credibility

All the above is highly speculative but given the progress made on this project over three years I think that anything is possible in the next twelve months

Good luck to all share holders tomorrow
W2