Hi Yanlin,
3 announcements in the last 24 hours.
The one concerning the increase in the Chinese call tariff rates.
On this, I noticed your HC posting to me last night, which I only saw earlier today (caught up elsewhere in work).
Assuming a number of "what ifs" (ie: no drop in usage patterns, the increase in the tariff rates -up 18c US to 20c all goes to margin), then yes, your figures make some sense.
Surely, however, one would expect significant resistance in the event of a 9 fold increase in the base rate. Think of the uproar that would occur if the same rate of increase took place in Australia.
But, yes, if all other things stack up, then your argument has merit. I still need to check, however, what is being said on the ground in China in respect of this (ie: for example, China Mobile recently deferred its USA listing because of the rate hike).
The 2nd ATC release concerned ATC responding to ASX queries regarding its Q1 results.
What was said there, however, has added nothing new to the equation beyond either what was previously released, or with what we have been discussing on this forum in recent days.
The 3rd ATC release concerns today's trading halt.
This, I do rate more significantly given that the statement was released in response to a letter to the ASX from Corrs and reads, as follows:
"I confirm that we act for Advantage Telecommunications Limited. We have been instructed by our client to seek a trading halt in relation to the securities of the Company pending an announcement.
The Company anticipates making such announcement during the course of today".
Two quick observations, to make:
1)
the trading halt was requested by ATC;
2)
the manner in which the trading halt was requested is at variance to previous practice.
Even in response to the ASX Q1 results query, ATC responded to the query late last night. Today, Corrs makes the written request.
Earlier this year, when ATC first announced the FNT deal, the trading halt was requested by ATC (ie: JP) on 28/6.
Same thing when the Q4 revenue results were first announced on 3/7. ATC (JP) requested the trading halt.
It could be that ATC is taking things more cautiously this time round. Or, it could be that there is something more significant to announce.
But, if it is about closing on the FNT deal, then provided that this time round, the deal sticks, then you may well be right.
For now, however, I will continue to adopt a wait and see approach.
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