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31/07/14
18:44
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Originally posted by tbrin
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Not sure if this has been covered today, but I have done some basic calculations based off the dates and announcements that we have received in the last month.
This is keeping in mind the 10 hour time difference, and the potential delay in GALP approving and TPT releasing announcements (also generally pre-market).
26th June - Actual Spud as per announcement 27th June
27th June - Spud announcement
14th July - ASX announcement "no issues", well marked as "tight" and "expected to intersect the Assaka and Trident objectives within 60 days from spud"
32 days have passed since Spud
28th July - ASX announcement - reached Assaka (@ ~2700m), no hydrocarbons detected. Will commence petro evaluation at TD.
32 days / 2700m = 84.375m p/d (not allowing for slowing of the drill as it reaches depths)
3 days pass
31st July - ASX Announcement - trading halt pending results of TAO-1
3 days * 84.375m p/d = 253.125m
2700m (Assaka upper TD) + 253.125m = 2953.125m
Trident upper TD is 3000m. TH is in place for maximum 3 days (a potential further ~253.125m) = 3206.25m. Trident lower TD is 3600m.
By this rough calculation, I speculate three distinct possibilities:
1. Drilling has reached Trident and experienced oil shows and continues to drill
2. Drilling has reached Trident and got nothing yet but continues to drill
3. They have realised they will reach Trident within the next 1-3 days and to ensure the rig is not leaky, requested a TH.
Calculation is meant only as a guide. IMO, DYOR etc. GLTAH.
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Not sure now many metes per hour they're drilling but would have thought it to soon to hit main target.
Maybe they've been getting some significant gas readings coming back in the mud system and some oil shows in the drilling samples as they're approaching the main target and wanted to control any info leaking from the rig, hence the halt. They want to contain something, lets hope its to the positive.