Apologies in advance for the tedious post, but it is out of a...

Apologies in advance for the tedious post, but it is out of a need to respond to yet another string of misquotes, selective quotes, flawed hypotheses and unsubstantiated assertions:


"Madamswer loves to refer to the past, ..."

You will find that overwhelmingly any discussion of the stock by me has been forward-looking, so much so that I've even modelled prospective (meaning "future") cash flows.

Have you?


"....how about the fact that for the first six months or so of his posts ignored the upside, and the science, almost entirely."

Refer to umpteen responses made over many posts why I believe that while re-establishing over and over, that which is already impeccably well-established, might be desirable for those insecure and less experienced investors looking for constant reinforcement and confirmation, it is a totally redundant exercise for investors looking for real objectivity.


"Some analysis!"

The fact that you don't find my analysis agreeable is not really something I can help to remedy.

For that's the nature of discussion boards: not everyone finds everyone else's analysis to everyone's respective liking.

But that doesn't mean that discussion boards should cease to exist, does it?

In fact, "discussion boards" wouldn't be called exactly that if all analysis was mutually acceptable to all participants; they would be called "agreement boards".

Maybe that's what you are after: an agreement board, where the rules are that everyone has to analyse things in the same way, and then everyone else has to agree with everyone else's analysis.

But on pure discussion boards, where differing sorts of analysis is to be countenanced, then one man's analysis is often another man's denial.

It is simply what it is, leaving you little choice - I suspect - but to live with it, as the bane that is a functioning democratic order.


"These days you still give no serious consideration to the upside and with it, the science."

Again (yawn), the upside is well-documented. I see no need to re-establish that which is already established.



"Could it be that a manipulated shareprice, and one which is being shorted, doesn't need much more of a push to scare mum & dad investors into selling?"

The old favourite tactic: anyone who is not positive overtly positive is complicit somehow in perverting the course of justice and equity.



"In a climate of fear and exhaustion (with a SP that is held down for accumulation), all you need to do is blast them with deceptively simple questions like: is this certain?"

You mention yet again that the "share price is being held down for accumulation" On what basis do you make this statement?

Are you sure the share isn't being sold down because people are concerned about an equity raising that some followers of the stock are commenting on?

Or for one or more of myriad of other possible reasons?


And now it gets really good (almost up there with "noises-from-sources" standard of clanger):


"The banks could tank in the medium to long term especially with the unemployment figures ticking up. Already they are toppy and overexposed to the domestic housing market. The the bond market is very uncertain. This is context. Absolute removal of risk as an absurd standard to be using. THAT is the part of an analysis that is not genuine."


I daresay the chance of the banks "tanking"(whatever that might mean) is an order of magnitude different to the chance of MSB turning out to indeed be underfunded to the point of sustainable commercialisation.

The latter is somewhat more observable and can be encapsulated in one easy numerical expression (I'll repeat it thus: "$149m cash balance minus $25m required working capital, all divided by $30m per quarter of capital consumption, which equals around 4 quarters worth of capital remaining).

How is the tanking of the banks similarly discernable?
What is your view of the asset quality of the banks?
What is your sense of the stress-testing of their loan books to varying unemployment scenarios?
What is the extent of their B&DD provisioning?
Do you think that level is appropriate?
What is your view of the NIM of the banks going forward?
What is your view of their Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital adequacy?
What is your view on wholesale funding markets?
What is your view on the competition for deposits?
What is your view on the cost-to-income ratio for the banks, going forward?
What about the prospects for fee income?

What do you think of any of these determinants of banking sector profitability?

Do you have anything to back up your banks-a-tanking scenario, or is it yet just another one of your "pull-something-out-of-the-air-to-make-you-sound-smart" tricks?

And what, may I ask is the rationale for "...the banks are toppy..."?

And then this gem:

"...the bond market is very uncertain..."

Really? How so?

By what empirical evidence is the bond market - not merely uncertain - but indeed very uncertain.

I had no idea you were such a bond market aficionado that you could not only make determinations with great gusto and aplomb on bond market uncertainty, but on degrees thereof (you kept that rare talent well-hidden).


"So after watching the SP held down for so long, such holders are not in the mood for risk v reward analysis and you don't give it to them."

Yet again, there is no possible chance that the stock has been sold for legitimate reasons.
No, it is obviously being systematically manipulated.

This is one variation of:

Share price goes up = Boy, I'm a smart, canny investor
Share price goes down = Damn those manipulators!


"Madamswer has never once compared MSB to any other emerging blue chip biotech stock. We get WOW, we get widgets and we get apples and oranges. Never a comparable stock.

Why is it appropriate to compare ONLY companies that are “alike”?

To the extent that I'm comparing one investment opportunity with another makes the comparison of one stock with any other stock perfectly legitimate, because that's the way I invest.

I do not have a mandate that is exclusively biotech in nature, and therefore any comparisons I make do not need to be confined to that particular universe of companies.

My investment universe is the entire world of listed securities, meaning my incremental investment dollar can go into either MSB, WOW, BHP, CSL, CBA, SRX, or indeed and of the 2,000 other companies listed on the Australian stock exchange.



"Madamswer has previously noted with satisfaction: it's so easy to disguise accumulation! If Macbank is busy as a broker accumulating shares on behalf of it's many clients, you can be sure they aren't triggering disclosure requirements of the ASX."

And Madamswer has also previously noted - which you have conveniently omitted to mention - that it is easy to disguise selling, too.
And similar to "Macbank being busy as a broker accumulating shares on behalf of its many clients", it might just as easy be busy as a broker selling shares on behalf of it's many clients.


"As he (Madamswer) has pointed out (maybe a bit gleefully?), it's easy to disguise the ultimate beneficial owner of shares being bought."

It is also easy to disguise the beneficial interest of those selling the shares, which is also what I have said (possibly with an equal dose of glee) but which you have also omitted to mention, in line with your usual partisan manner.



“Something doesn't ring true here. What worries me is mum & dad investors are being scared out of their shares.”


By exactly the same token what worries me is mum & dad investors not adequately considering risk when it comes to investing, but merely blindly trudging ahead on the promise of pure upside, which - as the share price has demonstrated - is patently not the case.


“… the trajectory to that end is not going to be straightforward, especially in the a market which is almost fanatically obsessed with returns.”

I’ve got bad news for you: "RETURN" is the most fundamental tenet of the Capitalist system, and Capitalism’s biggest icon is arguably the stock market.

So unless you think that many hundreds of years of investment theory is about to be overturned, then the obsession with "returns " is sure to continue unabated in the market.

In fact, while I don’t know much, I am prepared to go out on a limb and say that what I know, one hundred percent, is that investors in the stock market will always have a near-obsession-based focus on Returns.

So I suggest you start to pretty quickly learn about returns if you want to be an investor in publicly listed companies.

For them's the rules of the game, I'm afraid.
(and I daresay that its share price under-performance says that those rules apply to MSB, too)

If you don't like those rules, what alternative market mechanism would you care to proffer to drive share prices?

- Market Value divided by the number of Positive Announcements made?

- Enterprise Value divided by the ratio of Positive-to-Negative posts on HotCopper?



“IMO investors need to take a deep breath and ask themselves if there aren't wolves in sheeps clothing, not just out there in the market, but also in chat rooms, and they aren't necessarily on on your side.”

Yes, same IMO, too, investors need to take a deep breath and ask themselves if there aren’t wolves in sheeps clothing accusing the other sheep from being in wolves clothing, too.

Equally, maybe there are some here in chat rooms that are actually wanting to sell their shares at higher prices and are therefore trying to talk up the share price.


“THAT is why there is a disclaimer when you sign onto HC. You shouldn't rely on posts in here for investing decisions but remain calm and do your own research.”

Yes, don’t rely exclusively on posts that say only look at the colossal upside and nothing else.


“Then go back and take another look at the likelihood that MSB is going to make money in the medium term.”

Yes, do that. And for a balanced view assess the risks along the way to the point of MSB making money.


“There are some in here who want you to be fearful. Ask yourself if anyone might benefit from that. Because there are buyers out there for your MSB shares.”

Equally, there might be some in here who want you to be reckless. Ask yourself if anyone may benefit from that. Because there are sellers out there who are after your money and will give you there MSB shares in exchange.