4938, i think your second point of two wells drilled both with a 27% chance of success means that there is a 54% overall chance of at least one being successful is false. There is a 27% chance that one is successful and 7.29% chance of both being successful assuming the per centages you have given were correct.
Percentages are not as simple as saying that you'll drill four holes meaning that there is a 108% chance that you'll strike it lucky.
I hope this helps.
GC
trading hold - farmin agreement, page-27
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