Just wanted to see if anyone had any trading ideas regarding a low probability event: Xi Jingping fails to get re-elected in October 2022 (announces "retirement") and a new General Secretary is installed that is friendlier with the west (more aligned with Deng Xiaoping policies). I think that that is a low probability event (say 1 in 20+), but do not want to debate the politics.
I am thinking of buying beaten down companies with Chinese exposure in Aug-Sept 2022 and holding them over the October period with the aim of getting an outsized boost if the transfer of power occurs ... if not, I will dispose of the holdings.I would like to hold something that has limited downside ... this is not a long term play but an opportunistic one. Alternaitvely, perhaps puts on companies that have benefited from the decline of China / West relations.
Just in the research phase and looking for ideas - really do not want to debate the politics or justify my thinking for this event occuring ... just imagine if it did occur.
