Hey guys
Nice work from both Mike and Nikl.
Nikl I'm starting to pay real close attention to your approach, I like it, and thinking of writing a trade manager to handle it on a semi-auto basis.
Mike thanks for adding that information to explain your approach. Have you thought about starting at 0.01 and incrementally increasing over time for the long term? I have 2 approaches, depending on the model:
- Compounding size based on account balance.
- Starting at 0.01 and incrementing every 3 months by 0.01, so it would take 10 quarters to reach 0.10
In reality, While I started out with approach 1, I am now basically on approach 2, and will convert models to approach 1 when their sizing increases to a level where it is practical to compound.
Anyway, on to my daily update:
Unfortunately 2 runs closed in the last 24 hours, both for a loss - the USDCAD and USDCHF:
My balance high was $540.40 so the account after the above 2 runs is in a $215 drawdown, and there is still at least 1 more large loss to swallow (NZDUSD) with my open runs:
For today, I don't like any of the daily signals so no new runs. However, I have been working on a related strategy based on my observations from this demo testing, and that is that I find a lot of the runs are in net profit after 1 or 2 days, and then get susceptible to building some open drawdown, so I decided on a new rule which is the following:
- Start a new run based on the same daily signal as for the $50 GP target approach
- At the end of each day, if the net position is in profit, close the run
- If at the end of each day the net position is not in net profit, let the run continue towards the $50 GP target
Based on the above rules, my backtesting tells me I will average smaller profits, but the results will be more consistent. A big advantage to this approach apart from improving consistency is carrying less open positions for a shorter average time. Anyway, I will run a 2nd demo account side by side with the current one, and compare for the rest of the month.
2 markets I like today with this alternative rules in mind are the AUDJPY and EURAUD:
Cheers, Sharks
