Good Sunday to all,
Please excuse the length of the post. I hope someone/some find it interesting and relevant. I just wanted to put as much into a single post, so that confusing, multiple short and motive pointing posts could be discussed a little bit easier.
What a stellar week we've just had.
Ups and downs are all part of the natural progression of any share. Traders, profit takers, opportunist punters and range speculators, rampers and down-rampers (both unsubstantiated and excludes valid points for discussion) are all par for the course.
HC isn't the be-all and end-all of any share.
I have watched the comments since Friday and its clear to me.
We had a nice jump on the back of a great report and expect more news from more than one of our projects in the short term. I look forward to positive news (this and other projects
), and fully think we might see a greater reaction than we did for the OHD announcement, as some back to back support will eventuate.
1 good project - sweet, price up
2 good projects - OHH, now the market has its ears up. Risk greatly reduced.
3 good projects - OK, now this is really big. Risk very very low now, and potential through the roof.
And considering, each of the three above considered projects, have within them, further upside than just the main commodity/process of key part of the investment.
This is in my humble and GPP supportive opinion (and that all it is). There is some strange interpretations and things being said.
One to highlight as an example is the 10% production costs vs profitability...and what enthusiasm would there be for such a ratio??. - What, really??...
So here is my take, and please note, both the question and answer have previously been asked and answered...( Traders purely trading the range
)
* 10% production does not mean profitability loses, it can and more than likely would increase overall profitability.
* you might make a product for 10% of production costs and sacrifice 20% of sales costs profit from the old product equivalent and still have a serious increase to profitability generated by the production costs / sales cost differential increasing with a huge increase to actual sales.
* the current compared product (measuring the 90% production cost reduction) is
only used for high value crops...example being given is Almonds for one.
* With a production cost reduction of 90%, and any sales costs reduction would be welcomed, by the cheaper, larger crops/industries and increased markets that would now be open to a BETTER product.
* 90% reduction in production costs, and a potentially huge increased to market customer base increases overall profitability.
* Sales costs can be reduced, which opens up the market. You don't need, and wouldn't reduce you sales costs at anywhere near the same rate. That would just be plain dumb.
* Because, with the new product, now being sold say 20-30% cheaper and now being available to cheaper value crops/horticulture etc, increases sales by potentially a huge amount, 100x, 200x, 500x market?
* With the decrease in sales cost (but increased company revenue and profits), comes the other benefits of the product. Increased yields, lengthened shelve life and lessoned 'rot', which increased producer profitability.
End User/Producer...Moving from high value crops only to all crops and horticulture plus++
* I annually produce 12 apples and lose 2 to rot, damage. I generally sell my apples for $1.00 each.
* I have 10 apples to sell.
* I spend $0.80 producing each apple. (after waste/loses)
* I sell my 10 apples for $10.00
* I make $0.20 per saleable apple. ($2.00 or 20% profit)
* I have the ability to increase my production to 18 apples and lesson loses to 1 from rot/damage (-50%). Giving me 17 apples or an increase of 70% (combining lesser loses and fertilization benefits)
* My production costs have now reduced to $0.50 per apple. (after waste/loses)
* I now have 17 apples to sell. Due to increased production and (being a common commodity), I sell my apples for, $0.90 cents per apple. (-10% consumers happy), and have further time span to export/quality (increased marketability) at arrival point, hence, not a greater sale price reduction.
* I can now sell my 17 apples for $15.30
* I make $0.40 cents per apple and a 100% increase to profitability.
* The previous fertilizer was beyond economical user for me...but now, I can have a better product which increases my profitability...yay.
* I do not have to increase my crop (land) size to increase my production and sales revenue, or profitability saving me a huge amount of future expenditure, rationalizing my costs.
* With increased profits, I can repay any loans/mortgages reducing my expenditure/costs further.
* Producer benefits are far wider when considering a full financial positive impact which can be reasonably assumed with yields and quality.
Yes, I can see how there would be no interest
You will always find a brown piece of grass on a rugby field, it doesn't mean the rugby filed is not useable, but this is what some want us to think? Just paint it as it's inconsequential in the bigger picture.
The same principle applies to the Fertilizer company, reduce costs of Production, reduce sales price by less than the production cost reduction, but greatly increase market size, means huge jumps in profitability.
Its a Win/Win/Win/Win - Fertilizer producer, Crop producer and Consumers (Food), Environment. Consumers can also now be widened to include the domestic market for the actual fertilizer marketable product as the benefits would justify costs now. You know, the 1 ltr pre-prepared spray bottles
A price (premium) can also be added for the "GREEN" (stop or help stop deforestation and waterway poisoning, assist with speedy regrowth of damaged lands, natural or otherwise etc) and user friendly, non-toxic attributes which also support why there would not be an equal reduction in profitability (not that any company would), and actually, exactly the opposite.
I have no doubt, that some of those raising some of the questions are fully capable of quickly researching the answers themselves. They've been around long enough...what does that tell you...
I am not 100% sure on these two notes:
It may well be, that the OHD product can be deemed ORGANIC.
It might be able to increase animal feedstock quality, cycling into better an improved production from these areas too.
Ok, what to what we do know, we think;
Placing the value of the argument against the current and this weeks share price value, there is no comparison. I know already I probably won't be a holder, or will only hold a small, but by then valuable parcel, when full and fair value is achieved....this time is about growth and recognizing potential value and setting a strong base for the future. (having been in full world wide production for a year or two, seeing growth and expansion of demand and profitability etc - Unless GPP or the license is brought from us, well before that)
And then, what about the potential for Biodisel?
Next :
The license.
Also asked and answered...how many go back and read the threads
Range traders delight.
Raise an issue...noting happens to stop the rise....buy. Sell on a decent profit. Now re-raise some past answered thoughts after selling on signs of weakness. Subtle put meaningful to their motives, making money. Just some use a more clear and constant approach.
GPP have exclusive rights to AUS/NZ and the right to export.
I have no doubt that GPP will obtain more rights as the investment and research continues.
I also feel, that their will be other World regional licenses issued. I actually welcome this, as I doubt GPP could provide the World required demand with results continuing as those already received all by itself.
HC Phycology:
I also see old holders come back. Some will now be longer term, some will be riding momentum...all good. No problems here. Positive last week, now subtle doubts/questions...I guess we can see some of those that sold into Fridays selling (by decision or being caught out on stop losses), and why not
. We are all here to hopefully make money.
Those that got stopped out, might actually not be happy at all about it. What do we expect them to post?...not that all holders post or even read HC.
To me it tells me they will be back, and re-ride the story soon enough, once they think its heading back up again. You only have to go back a few days, but many posts to see this very clearly. I won't single anyone out, as that's not the point of HC, and some questions are well timed, so that we can discuss nicely.
I will admit, double dip, triple or more trading in a tight range, before each step up can be very lucrative...so long as you don't lose more than you'd have gained by just holding tight (i.e. getting caught the wrong side of news or Trading Halt.
I did call this selling on Thursday I believe. So I was out by a day...but knew it was going to happen some time. Next is the leg back up as per the norm, and again, hoping this will tie in with the next batch of news. I am not keen on risking being locked out on another Trading Halt. I hold a short - medium and longer term confidence.
Collaborating posters/traders.
Followers and trend setters.
Such fun
Off the top of my head it must have been close to being 100% of GPP shares on issue were traded over the last week. Some profit was taken on about 20m shares being sold at the end of a Friday. Some extra would have been caught up in stop losses - maybe 3% total, vs the 100% traded. I'd say that was very positive really.
No drama, no tears. I think this will be quite positive in the end, and, 'the end' in this context, I mean not long
Lithium potential.
SOP is not Potash
Deals on/for all in time.
The management to date have been exceptional...that's worth 1 cent to me minimum
The management, certainly appears to be signaling a plan.
Full out trading isn't for me, all though I do a have a few shares I consider a trading parcel (non-market influencing up or down LOL), with a free carry core holding and I do acknowledge, that the traders have helped push GPP to new highs, High and Higher lows. May it continue
No rush here.
Enjoying the unfolding story, and look forward to regular updates on each project. Its a lot better than having to wait months for any news from companies with only one project.
Its time for rationale overall thinking.
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and see you all back tomorrow
Buying or selling make sure you are happy and I hope its positive for you.
(20min delay)