1) Firstly, congrats, this is great news for everybody and things worked out according to plan. The only concern for me it will be touch and go with 12 month in December for cap. gains tax.
2) Regarding the offer price. I believe the offer may well be increased. I find it hard to see 31c as a good value considering no immediate re-financing issues and the much higher net asset backing. Strange timing with bank covenant just removed with LLC's help - that kind of makes LLP more expensive.
3) Voting. The deal is conducted under a scheme of arrangement under section 5 of Corporations act, which unless I am wrong, requires 75% shareholder approval (unlike takeover under section 6 of Corporations act which would require 90%). 75% is still 32% of remaining 57% non-LLC votes, which may not be easy to achieve. I will be analyzing LLP major register again shortly. My view is that LLC will increase the offer to appease major institutional investors but I could be wrong there. If it comes to voting at 31c I will be personally voting against it.
If somebody has background in Corp Act/law, please correct me if I am wrong, regarding the number of votes required.
3) Finally, regarding questions about PTN, PTN now remains the largest independent pure retirement operator in the sector. IMO, consolidation will occur. My predictions and analysis published earlier suggest that both SGP and LLC should be interested in carving up PTN. It is trading at higher discount than LLP and I agree it is a lot riskier than LLP. Recently, there was a sale of some of PTN properties to LLC and an arrangement where PTN has the right to buy management rights over some of the assets that it owns. In other words, LLP, LLC and PTN worked together on a number of issues, including resolution of a legal case regarding late payments.
All very hairy, but as a rule of thumb, the third player is a takeover target, specially if it is somewhat distressed. I hold PTN to lesser degree than LLP and will top up now. I believe retirement sector has big growth prospects. After all, it is likely that I will be forced to have some cash in lieu of LLP shares come December/Jan. And if it ends up sinking, I will have something to partially offset the gains from LLP. Call it calculated risk.
Best regards
LLP Price at posting:
29.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
