Trading, page-8

Worth noting in that report - which is comprehensive as insected said, definitely a more comprehensive analysis then I did although the assumptions look high in some places (like 2591 having 19% chance of approval in each of the 3 indications it has done preclinical for) and low in others - is the following excerpt from the risk sections (note I focused on the upside bit only to highlight what they did not include in coming to their valuation which I think is significant - there are obviously downside risks mentioned as well).

There is upside risk. Neuren is targeting diseases for which there are no approved treatments. Clear signs of patient benefit may result in expedited approval. Neuren is currently targeting five syndromes. The MOA of both trofinetide and NNZ-2591 act to ‘normalise’ the underlying pathological features of the diseases and therefore both trofinetide and NNZ-2591 are likely to be applicable to more neurodevelopmental conditions. Formal approval may be undertaken and/or the drugs may be used ‘off label’ as clinicians try to relieve shared symptoms with other neurological conditions. No value has been assigned to these potential additional applications.