In the USA system of optional registration, and voting if you feel like it, managing the expectations of one's supporters is a very interesting psycholgical game:
Best if they think their side is the underdog: encourages the supporters to get out and sway things by their enthusiasm.
But not too far under: supporters get depressed, and the less enthusiatic don't bother.
And besides, in America: nobody likes being a loser. Some supporters might prefer not to have voted this time, and affect a feigned neutrality, rather than actually vote for the losing side.
So for the Trump Republicans, their dog is too far under: they're trying to pump up the chances of somehow being close enough to win. Lots of fanciful stories of the Trump tide turning.
On the Democratic side, I would imagine there's very little complacency. Their supporters likely to turn out in huge numbers, despite the pandemic, despite the mail-voting convolutions. Might be a lot of invalid votes, but not enough to affect the size of the result.
Electoral college numbers harder to predict: I was tipping Biden on a 2 to 1, roughly 360 to 180 (OK: I know the total is 538).
but now I'm expecting a bigger result for Biden. 2 to 1 is the lower end. 400-ish to 140-ish on the cards.
Meanwhile, the hard-core political junkies will be watching the senate races in those states where senators are on the ballot. Question for the day: will Trump be the Typhoid Mary for the Republican party? Will he drag them all down with him?
And be reminded that at the 2020 Republican convention, the party statespersons didn't even bother to formulate a political agenda, other than: "we're with Trump". That's it; that is truly it and I'm not kidding, the 2020 Republican party platform.
PS: dear Trumpians: I've noticed the standard of your boosterism has been slipping lately, you're all sounding a bit hoarse and rambly. Chin up: we need the entertainment.
Regards,
P
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