transgene announcement, page-26

Hi guys,
Just read the announcement after dinner, discussed with Kent through the phone and it not a bad deal at all. Up to 700M Euros royalty payments for TG4010, much much better than 175M Euros with Roche for TG4001. The most important thing for Virax is this deal gives an other big stamp of confidence by the big players on our Co-X-Gene technology.

One would ask now, what is our chance of similar a successful results for Virax's HIV vaccine VIR201 ?. Too much for me to speculate about it at the moment !.

As I've suspected, not a word mentioned about the Co-X-Gene or Virax as usual. What I heard was the Co-X-Gene sub-license with Virax was one of the only few matters raised by the JV negotiation team with some delay as a result. I think Novartis locked on the option for now just simply to give Transgene sometime to get it house in order with the Co-X-Gene sub-license with Virax.

Others may see it differently, but I am some what relieve when this deal is out of the way as it is. At least Transge won't have a lot of cash to wave around VHL. Of course there is not much in the way if Transgene wish launch a full scrips take over now, say 1TGN for 10VHL as Kent mentioned !!.

The question is, would we except Transgene share, knowing that Transgene share price went from 10 to 23 Euros, based solely on US FDA approval for TG4010 fast track announced in 2009 ?. As we all know most of Transgene 460M Euros value is based mostly on TG4010 & TG4001. I won't wish to swap for TNG for sure, not now when we are so close with VIR201.

Obviously Transgene shareholders expected an immediate large monetary return on this deal which does not happen. We won't be too surprised to see Transgene share price to claw back 10% - 15% of the recent gain.

This is mainly because, Transgene will be very busy with the next TG4010 trial phase, and hopefully they will leave us alone for a few more months. I hope, at least until June for us shareholders to see the fruition of our company maker HIV vaccine VIR201 trial in South Africa. By then, our market cap would be in a 100M, hopefully too large for Transgene to swallow us up.

I don't know about you guys, but I won't careless which way VHL will go tomorrow. It just a relief finally the announcement is out, and we know better about our own fate with VHL. Happy investing..