transocean, page-22

the only missing information here is 'when are Transocean done selling'

If it was yesterday then it goes up because in the last 3 weeks the demand for shares was only met because transocean was selling.

If they still have more to sell then the question becomes 'are the buyers finished?' because that could drive the SP lower if they have.

My observation of their selling is that it is pretty much only above 7c they are willing to sell so I am not sure there will be any blood bath. I have no bids in the market at the moment and there is still plenty of interest.

All the speculation above Transocean bid stacking is ridiculous - do you really think the chairman of the company asked the other 2 directors for permission to sell and buy?

Transoceans complete holding could be absorbed by the market at this rate - it would just take a couple of weeks. I would only be concerned if Cape turned meaningful seller - and then my concern is not about the company but the potential for SP appreciation would be a long way off. These guys don't sell because they 'know something we don't' - they know they get gaol time for that - they sell because they want to take profit or were just a conduit to funding the company going forward - and that has worked a treat - most companies do cap raisings at 20% discounts but the dilution in ADO was very close to the money through the options and the financiers still made plenty cause new investors (eg me) came along and provided the funds at a premium to the exercise price.

I have tried really hard to wait for better prices to buy my stake but they never came so while I got some 'cheap ones' after tsunami I have had to pay around 7c for the rest - I don't mind that and I don't mind if it drops to 6c now - that is just my bad luck. Cape don't seem to mind all the ones they bought up to 9c either.

There are few stocks I think I am likely to hold for 2 or 3 or 4 years but this is one of them - the others I just hope I am going to get spike and move on. I can see this one potentially earning NPAT of $100m in 5-10 years (yes that is a crazy number but I think it could be done) and that would give a SP of $1 or more. I try to avoid statements like that because I am not actually calling it to $1 - too much has to happen that is uncertain - I just think it is a realistic possibility and can be done without any further capital raisings.

All the best folks - I have more to buy (but not too much more!) but really really will wait for next weeks massive dump before wading in.