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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Many thanks Dr_Manhattan had a quick skim of that info looking...

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jonatb

594 Posts.

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30/06/18

17:20

Post #: 34059069
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Originally posted by Dr_Manhattan ↑

'

I believe this is important as the EV revolution is getting quicker and quicker and in 5 years will be close to being mature with long term contracts in place. AIMO.' - Kikker1959

2024 should see about 10% EV sales penetration according to UBS. Disruptive technology often follows an s-curve or a sigmoid function. Anyhow, 10% up that function is still well before the maximum growth rate (at 50%). I'm still doubtful that with the time taken to ramp up new mines, there will be enough lithium output. Beyond 2024 (10% EV sales requiring perhaps 700kt LCE/y), the demand keeps on accelerating up to 50%, which very crudely means 5X the output in 2024. If EV's are adopting following this model, not only is AVZ going to be needed but so are many other lithium projects in my option.

View attachment 1171731

' Whilst I agree producing Hydroxide product will reduce export tonnage by a factor of 8x approx it then also brings in increases elsewhere. Obviouse increases in mine build cost and time to build. But also electricity etc. On the transportation side this now means Manono would need to import large qty(tonnage) of chemicals.' - jonatb

* Hydroxide plant would solve transportation issues entirely. There is a operating tin mine just south of Manono producing tin concentrate. If you can get tin to 70% (Manono used to make a 72% concentrate), then you have a product worth $14,000/tonne and transportation isn't an issue. For a chemical plant, electricity is an issue indeed but I think the initial costs are the biggest concern here. Short of some crazy JV, a hydroxide plant isn't going to be built in Manono immediately alongside the mine. Thus, logistics needs solutions in mass moving a product current worth around $900/tonne. In regards to chemicals, vehicles run back to Manono empty, so its clearly they would be utilized there.

* There are a number of options for transportation.
- Road 617 being upgraded which is the simplest solution. 450km haulage south likely with a maximum load of 30 tonnes per truck (road limits) to rail in the copper/cobalt belt. From there, regular transport route. I honestly don't know the costs of this but we will know soon enough. One needs to be careful as the miners down there move concentrate which is more expensive.

Still, you have BGS which is planning to move 6% concentrate 1000km to a foreign port at $99/tonne.

Nemaska below moving 6% concentrate 300km on DIRT roads to rail and then another 555km by rail for supposedly $50/tonne.
View attachment 1171752

- Northern route which is more complicated.
Manono to Tanzania via rail barges outlined in the Road to Manono thread already. Ideally, 45km of rail to Congo river along the old rail path west of Manono. Rail wagons go onto barge, barge goes north and back on line to Kalemie, wagons on barge to Kigmoa and back on rail to export port of Dar es Salaam. Ideally no moving product beyond rail car switching. Potential issues,
* Need 45km track west (could be done with trucks initially with some efficient method of dumping into railcars at river)
* Need at least 2X500 tonne barges specifically built for rail (not too difficult with bigger barges operating from Kalemie)

* Rail to Kalemie is one way only, 1066mm gauge (line is not used much however)
* Port of Kalemie and Kigoma will need rail adjustments to accommodate rail barges (this was actually done there historically).
* Kalemie might need some dreading (done before already at $500k plus doesn't affect low draft barges as much)
* Line in Tanzania from Kigoma is 1000mm gauge, so wagons need to be variable gauge (doable).

Lot of this stuff was overcome in the past and with the development in the DRC and Tanzania, many of these issues will improve in future. There are port upgrade plans and a modern rail network pushing towards Kigoma in Tanzania.

Looking at the simplest road solution using 30 tonne loads. 350,000 tonnes of 6% concentrate / 30 tonnes = 11666 trips per year or 32 trips per day. This isn't an impossibility and many PFS using road haulage have figures like there. Wages are significantly lower in the DRC for drivers.

IMO, if the mine can get started profitably in a scalable fashion, things only improve over time with the infrastructure upgrades and chemical plant options.

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Many thanks Dr_Manhattan had a quick skim of that info looking forward to taking some time later this evening

AVZ Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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